Статья по этому поводу появилась на сайте агентства Bloomberg.В этом материале отмечено, что разрыв в ставках доходности бумаг Минфина с различным сроком погашения, увеличился до максимального соотношения за несколько лет.Традиционно такая ситуация сигнализирует о возможности продолжения притока средств в фондовые активы, что может свидетельствовать о потенциальном биржевом ралли в недалеком будущем.

May 23 (Bloomberg) — The gap between longer-term U.S. government bond yields and shorter maturities is the steepest ever during this point of an economic recovery, a sign the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to reverse record monetary stimulus when it stops buying Treasuries next month. The difference in yields between 2- and 5-year maturities as well as 2- and 10-year debt both now and projected for three- and six-months in the future are above the averages in instances when the Fed held interest rates steady, manufacturing was expanding and inflation less than 2 percent. That’s according to an analysis of interest-rate swaps by Deutsche Bank AG, one of the 20 primary dealers of U.S. debt that trade with the Fed. The difference between the rate on a two-year interest rate swap, which is the exchange of fixed for floating payments, and that on a 10-year maturity is 2.50 percentage points, compared with an average of 1.11 percentage points when the central bank was on hold, according to Deutsche Bank data. Between two- and five-year swap rates, the gap is 1.29 percentage points, or 129 basis points. In the forward market, where investors agree to lock in rates at a pre-set time in the future, the spread is 130 basis points for three months and 121 basis points in a year, Bloomberg data show. The average of the spread when the Fed was keeping policy rates stable was 0.63 percent on a spot basis, 0.60 percent on three-month forwards and 0.48 percent for one year, said Alex Li, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank.  

 noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSeCIYQGOAtw

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May 20 (Bloomberg) — Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said there’s a rising concern that technology stocks are in a bubble as investors shake off their apprehension from the 2007-2009 American mortgage and credit collapse. “Who could have imagined that the concern with respect to any American financial asset, just two years after the crisis, would be a bubble?” Summers, who is now a professor at Harvard University, said at a conference today in Shanghai. “Yet that concern is increasingly raised with respect to American technology, with respect to certain other American assets. That is a reflection of the resumption of confidence.” LinkedIn Corp., the largest professional-networking website, more than doubled yesterday after its initial public offering, an echo of some of hottest stocks in the dot-com boom. Yahoo! Inc. rose 154 percent when it first traded in 1996. Elsewhere, U.S. farmland prices may be in a bubble, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said earlier this year. “Today there are very substantial risks, to be sure, but the economy is growing, unemployment is falling and financial conditions are normalized,” said Summers, who was director of the White House National Economic Council in the Obama administration from 2009 to 2010. Summers said the “central irony” of a financial crisis is that it’s caused by too much confidence, borrowing and lending, and is resolved by more confidence, borrowing and spending. He was Treasury chief from 1999 to 2001 under President Bill Clinton, a term that coincided with the collapse of technology shares. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 39 percent in 2000.

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May 18 (Bloomberg) — Copper demand from China’s cable makers, the biggest user in the world’s largest market, will more than double over the next 10 years as people move to cities and power grids expand, according to Hu An Cable Holdings Ltd. The industry’s demand may increase by 10 percent to 15 percent per year over the next 10 years, similar to the rate in the past few years, Dai Zhixiang, chairman and chief executive officer, said in an interview.

Annual cable-and-wire capacity at Yixing, Jiangsu-based Hu An is 81,192 miles (130,667 kilometers), equivalent to five round-trip flights from New York to Hong Kong. Dai’s forecast underscores the nation’s increasing demand for commodities including copper, which is forecast to be in a global deficit this year. Copper futures surged sixfold in London since the end of 2001, touching a record in February, as China grew to become the world’s second-largest economy.

“The steady investment in power generation, the upgrade of rural power grids, the push for clean energy and the building of more houses will drive demand for cables and wires,” Dai said in Singapore on May 13. Solar and wind power “still needs to be carried by cables to the grid.”

 More than half of China’s 7 million metric tons of annual copper consumption goes into making cables and wires, and the power-cable industry accounts for about a quarter of that, according to Li Ye, an analyst at Minmetals Starfutures Co. China accounts for about 40 percent of global copper demand. Copper on the London Metal Exchange traded at $8,930 per ton at 4:31 p.m. in Singapore compared with the all-time high of $10,190 on Feb. 15. Barclays Capital, forecasting a copper shortfall this year, told investors in a report on May 6 to use the slump to buy. Dai didn’t comment on the outlook for prices. ‘Main Driver’ “Demand for power cables is definitely going to be the main driver for copper consumption in China in the next few years,” said Fang Junfeng, an analyst at China International Futures Co. Hu An, which is listed in Singapore and Taiwan, used 360,000 tons of copper for cables, rods and wires last year. China State Grid Corp., the nation’s largest operator of electricity networks, is planning an 11 percent increase in fixed-asset investment this year. The government will fund an upgrade of power grids in rural areas during the next five years, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in January.

China aims to add a record 36 million units of social housing in the next five years to cover 20 percent of the residential market, the government said in March. Policy makers are accelerating the development of affordable housing to cool home prices that gained for 19 months through December. The central bank has also raised interest rates and ordered lenders to set aside more funds as reserves. Housing Market “Tightening measures don’t seem to have much effect, so the government has decided to flood the housing market in order to cool prices and this will drive demand” for wires and cables, said Dai. “As rural Chinese migrate to bigger cities, this frees up land for further infrastructure development.”

Each year since 2000, between 15 million and 20 million people migrate to Beijing, Shanghai, and second- and third-tier cities in mainland China, according to Stephen Roach, nonexecutive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. That’s 2 1/2 New York Cities created annually, he said in June 2010. When farmers migrate to cities there’s “a shift in mindset,” said Dai.

“They become open to the concept of borrowing money to make purchases, including home appliances, which in turn fuels demand.” Appliance makers are China’s second-largest copper users. The push for cleaner sources of energy is another driver of demand, said Dai. Under the nation’s 12th five-year plan, China will invest in clean-energy projects, targeting a 16 percent cut in energy use per unit of gross domestic product by 2015. There will be a 377,000-ton global copper shortfall this year followed by a deficit of 279,000 tons in 2012, according to the International Copper Study Group. Shares of Hu An are down 5.3 percent this year in Singapore, and up 36 percent in Taiwan. Net profit in the three months to March rose 69 percent to 32.6 million yuan ($5 million).

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К этому призывают представители швейцарской Swiss People”s Party.Как заявил вице-президент этой партии, господин Christoph Blocher необходимо установить пограничный контроль на границах Швейцарии с Евросоюзом для предотвращения притока иммигрантов, а вообще лучше всего выйти из Шенгенского Соглашения, чтобы принять законы об усилении борьбы с незаконной иммиграцией.

 ZURICH, May 13 (Reuters) — Switzerland should reintroduce border controls to limit immigration and possibly even pull out of the Schengen treaty that allows free movement in Europe, the right-wing Swiss People”s Party (SVP) said. «Switzerland made a mistake in giving up control over immigration policy,» Christoph Blocher, former justice minister and influential SVP vice president, told Reuters. At national elections in October, the SVP, the biggest party in Switzerland on the back of immigration fears, looks set to increase its share of the vote to almost 30 percent from the 29 percent it won in the 2007 poll. Swiss voters backed SVP proposals in referendums recently to automatically expel immigrants convicted of serious crimes and to ban the building of new minarets in a country where foreigners make up over a fifth of the 7.7 million population.

An opinion poll conducted by M.I.S. Trend on Thursday showed 59 percent of Swiss in favour of limits on immigration, while only 25 percent back joining the EU. Blocher noted that Denmark”s centre-right government agreed on Wednesday to tighten border controls. 

 «We are of the opinion that Schengen doesn”t have to be adhered to anymore,» he said. «We need to see what is possible and if not we must be brave enough to cancel the treaty. We can do that, but Denmark cannot because they are in the EU.» The Schengen treaty abolished border controls within Europe and consists of 25 nations, including Switzerland which voted in a referendum in 2005 in favour of the treaty despite opposition from the SVP and the fact it remains outside the European Union. Switzerland”s location in the heart of Europe means any withdrawal from Schengen could inconvenience travellers using road and rail networks that pass through the country, linking Italy to France and Germany. The EU executive is considering allowing governments to restore controls temporarily following calls by France and other states to prevent migrants fleeing turmoil in North Africa from spreading through the trade area. «Roads are blocked with traffic, the trains are overloaded, culture isn”t being protected,» Blocher said, adding that Switzerland had a higher rate of immigration than any other country, with 80,000 new arrivals a year. Blocher said immigration risked stoking social tensions, adding that unemployment of 3.5 percent was high by Swiss standards given the current robust state of the economy. 

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 SINGAPORE, May 13 (Reuters) — Investors slashed their bets on the Singapore dollar by the most in six months and became less bullish on the yuan, as volatile commodity markets and Greece”s debt problems lifted the U.S. dollar, a monthly Reuters poll showed on Friday. Currency investors turned bearish on the Indian rupee for the first time since March, while increasing their long positions in the Indonesian rupiah and the Taiwan dollar slightly, according to the poll.

Emerging Asian currencies had been enjoying robust inflows to regional stocks and bonds based on stronger economic performance and tighter monetary policy amid ample global liquidity. But they suffered a pullback this month as investors booked profits and covered their bets against the U.S. dollar. The poll asked 11 currency strategists to estimate how the market was positioned in eight Asian currencies against the dollar. The survey measures estimates of the net long or short position in a currency on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long on dollars. The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). 

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 WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) — Studies by regional Federal Reserve banks show job scarcity is a major hindrance to the recovery of the depressed U.S. housing market, a top Fed official said on Tuesday. Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke said regional Fed banks have begun collecting data from surveys in a more systematic way. Officials at the central bank hope the results will play a greater role in making decisions about monetary policy, she said. «The lack of jobs was the dominant theme in the first year of data collection, with the majority of respondents identifying unemployment as the primary cause of new distress in the housing sector,» Duke said. The Fed governor cited one participant in a San Francisco Fed survey, who said prolonged unemployment and underemployment are causing a surge in the number of low-and moderate-income individuals and communities. «Unemployment is now the driving force behind most of the other crises we are facing.» the respondent told the Fed.

 However, Duke said conditions for small businesses, who make up the bulk of U.S. hiring, are improving. «The combination of a variety of recent survey results paints a picture of increasing optimism about future sales and business conditions and a corresponding easing of credit availability for small businesses,» Duke said in a speech in St. Louis on community development. A copy of her speech was made available in Washington. Fed officials are wrestling with when to remove their extensive support for the economy as the recovery gains speed. While some policy-makers are worried that the central bank could fail to keep inflation in check if it delays tightening financial conditions, the Fed has said it is in no hurry to raise interest rates or sell bonds while unemployment is high. U.S. companies created jobs at the fastest pace in five years in April, pointing to underlying strength in the economy, although the jobless rate — which is derived from a separate survey rose — to 9.0 percent on a modest rise in the size of the labor force. 

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Один из самых талантливых монетаристов современности, бывший чиновник из МВФ, а ныне глава ЦБ Израиля, полагает, что нет смысла вводить контроль за приток краткосрочного капитала.По его мнению, несмотря на всю заманчивость пододной идеи, есть противоречия.Причем серьезные.Если контролировать краткосрочный приток капитала, то можно получить громадный приток долгосрочного капитала.Иными словами, господин Фишер по всей видимости имел в виду, что при определении термина «краткосрочный капитал» надо понимать, что это капиталы, которые приходят в страну на короткий срок, на 1-2 года, но тогда капитальные потоки просто перестроятся и спекулянты станут вкладывать деньги не срок больший, чем 1-2 года, что по сути, не меняет расклад сил и будет оказывать влияние на финансовый сектор любой страны, в смысле роста стоимости активов.

May 6 (Bloomberg) — Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said he mistrusts empirical evidence showing capital controls don’t affect the volumes of capital flows. “I’d love to believe the story that comes out of the empirical work that capital controls only affect the composition of capital flows” between long-term and short-term, Fischer told a conference in Helsinki today. “Why would I like to believe that, because that means if I can control the level of short-term flows I get more long-term flows. I don’t think that’s what happens.”

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Об этом сообщает рассетная система  CLS Bank.По сравнению с мартом, в апреле средневзвешанный объем торгов был на 16.5% ниже.Связать это можно с падением уровня волатильности на рынках.В среднем в апреле, обороты торгов составили 4 4.57 триллионов, против $ 4.87 триллионов месяцем раньше.Однако по сравнению с апрелем 2010 года, объем торгов на мировом валютном рынке оказался на 15% выше.

LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) — The average number of daily foreign exchange payment instructions fell 16.5 percent in April from the previous month, while the average value also dropped, FX settlement system CLS Bank said on Thursday. CLS said the decline in volume was «primarily a result of reduced market volatility following the events in Japan in March and a number of currency holidays in April». Data showed the average volume of payment instructions was 725,604 instructions, compared with 869,135 in March. That was also down slightly on the 727,956 instructions recorded in April 2010. The record monthly volume, hit in May 2010, was 1,056,558. The average daily value settled in April was $4.57 trillion, down from $4.87 trillion in March, although this was up 15 percent on April 2010″s $3.99 trillion. The CLS Aggregation Service aggregated a daily average of 167,176 instructions, up from 162,300 instructions in March. Aggregated trades are submitted to CLS for settlement.

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Об этом в клиентской записке сообщают стратеги одного из фондов Дойче банка.Статег по валютам Deutsche Hedge fund, господин Mirza Baig пишет, что объем чистых длинных позиций по азиатским валютам со стороны хедж-фондов, почти достиг рекордных показателей, что создает риски для коррекции валют региона.В Deutsche Hedge fund также отмечают, что слишком быстрое укрепление некоторых азиатских валют, создает предпосылки для коррекции, так как на данном этапе курсы таких валют, как доллар Сингапура или рингитт Малазиий выглядят немного дороговато.Тем не менее, в долгосрочном плане стратеги Deutsche Hedge fund отмечают, что основные ставки по прежнему направлены на дальнейшее укрепление азиатских валют, вопрос только в желании зафиксировать прибыль и получить возможность приобрести валюты немного дешевле.

08:01 04May11 -FXNEWS-Hedge funds” AXJ long positions near record-Deutsche Hedge funds” long positions in some emerging Asian currencies had been close to a record high, says Mirza Baig, senior currency strategist for Deutsche Bank in Singapore, suggesting the currencies may face risk of some liquidation of the positions sooner or later. Deutsche Bank”s internal gauge of market positioning that tracks moves among hedge funds had shown that long positions in some of the Asian currencies had been close to a record high as of last Thursday, Baig says. «Positioning was definitely quite stretched,» Baig says, referring to hedge funds” bets for Asian currencies to rise. But some Asian currencies are now nearing levels where they may be worth buying, such as 1.24 for USD/SGD and 3.00 for USD/MYR, he adds.